Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases; an international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics. METHODS: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities. RESULTS: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29-32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%. CONCLUSIONS: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers.

Recurrence Patterns After Resection of Colorectal Liver Metastasis are Modified by Perioperative Systemic Chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the impact of perioperative systemic chemotherapy on the recurrence rate and pattern following resection of colorectal liver metastases. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in two centers. Rates and patterns of recurrence and overall survival (OS) were compared between patients treated with and without perioperative systemic chemotherapy. The clinical risk score (CRS) was used to stratify patients in low risk (CRS 0-2) and high risk (CRS 3-5) of recurrence. RESULTS: A total of 2020 patients were included, of whom 1442 (71%) received perioperative systemic chemotherapy. The median follow-up was 88 months, and 1289 patients (64%) developed a recurrence. The recurrence pattern was independent of chemotherapy in low-risk patients: intrahepatic recurrences (30% vs. 30%, p = 0.97) and extrahepatic recurrences (38% vs. 39%, p = 0.52). In high-risk patients, no difference in intrahepatic recurrences was found (48% vs. 50%, p = 0.59). However, a lower rate of extrahepatic recurrences (43% vs. 55%, p = 0.007) was observed with perioperative systemic chemotherapy, mainly due to a reduction in pulmonary recurrences (25% vs. 35%, p = 0.007). In competing risk analysis, the cumulative incidence of extrahepatic recurrence was significantly lower with perioperative systemic chemotherapy in high-risk patients only (5-year cumulative incidence 44% vs. 59%, p < 0.001). Perioperative chemotherapy was associated with improved OS in high-risk patients (adjusted HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.94, p = 0.02), but not in low-risk patients (adjusted HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.82-1.19, p = 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Perioperative systemic chemotherapy had no association with intrahepatic recurrence, but was associated with fewer pulmonary recurrences and superior OS in high-risk patients only.

Adjuvant Hepatic Arterial Infusion Pump Chemotherapy After Resection of Colorectal Liver Metastases: Results of a Safety and Feasibility Study in The Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: The 10-year overall survival with adjuvant hepatic arterial infusion pump (HAIP) chemotherapy after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs) was 61% in clinical trials from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. A pilot study was performed to evaluate the safety and feasibility of adjuvant HAIP chemotherapy in patients with resectable CRLMs. STUDY DESIGN: A phase II study was performed in two centers in The Netherlands. Patients with resectable CRLM without extrahepatic disease were eligible. All patients underwent complete resection and/or ablation of CRLMs and pump implantation. Safety was determined by the 90-day HAIP-related postoperative complications from the day of pump placement (Clavien-Dindo classification, grade III or higher) and feasibility by the successful administration of the first cycle of HAIP chemotherapy. RESULTS: A total of 20 patients, with a median age of 57 years (interquartile range [IQR] 51-64) were included. Grade III or higher HAIP-related postoperative complications were found in two patients (10%), both of whom had a reoperation (without laparotomy) to replace a pump with a slow flow rate or to reposition a flipped pump. No arterial bleeding, arterial dissection, arterial thrombosis, extrahepatic perfusion, pump pocket hematoma, or pump pocket infections were found within 90 days after surgery. After a median of 43 days (IQR 29-52) following surgery, all patients received the first dose of HAIP chemotherapy, which was completed uneventfully in all patients. CONCLUSION: Pump implantation is safe, and administration of HAIP chemotherapy is feasible, in patients with resectable CRLMs, after training of a dedicated multidisciplinary team.